Trends that will define the global economy in 2022
Once again, the pandemic will mark the trends that will define the global economy in 2022. Hispanic Entrepreneurs We will tell you what elements will influence the markets in the coming months so that you can take the necessary forecasts.
It will be a year of challenges and uncertainty on several sides due to problems in supply chains, inflation, etc. Although we cannot change the scenario, it is feasible to adapt and manage it.
We must understand that consumer habits have changed and the persistence of the coronavirus accelerated this. So many transformations will come. The International Monetary Fund indicates that the rise in world GDP is 4.9%.
So that, In general, the world economy entered a marked slowdown. This is caused by the threats of new variants, inflation and income imbalance. This would run until 2023.
Trends that will define the global economy in 2022
1-Low birth rate
The impact of the pandemic possibly influenced couples' decision not to have children. For some time now, the decline in the birth rate has affected world economic growth, but it accelerated in the health crisis. This will also reduce labor availability over time and have an impact on businesses.
2- Brake of China's growth
China will grow, but not as much as before, due to falling birth rate, rising debt and government intervention. The self-sufficiency of the country's businesses distances them from other economies. This indicates that it could have reached its peak growth engine.
The Chinese government's intention is to increase domestic consumption and reduce export dependency. But in recent months this has been put on hold by the energy crisis it is facing.
As well as for the cut of taxes of the provinces to achieve the environmental objectives. Likewise, due to the increase in coal prices, the delay in exports and the crisis in the real estate sector.
Another factor that will continue to take its toll economically is zero tolerance with covid-19. This leads them to confinements and strict sanitary measures that lead to the closure of businesses.
3-Increase in debt
Due to the pandemic, world debt grew faster due to government indebtedness. 25 large countries have a debt greater than 300% of GDP. The money printed in the banks inflates the markets and deepens the consequences of the deficit. The debt trap traps the companies dependent on it that fear bankruptcy.
4-Inflation and “greenflation”
Inflation is expected to rise, but will not reach double digits. The labor deficit, higher wages, the deglobalization of trade and flows of people generate less competition.
Added to the increase in costs due to the slow growth of productivity and populism, they are ingredients for the inflation rate to rise. The worst impact will be seen in the first quarter. It is expected to taper off in the second half of the year as supply chain issues are resolved. But the dynamic will vary by country.
Whereas, green inflation appears because green policies have caused the supply of raw materials to decline. In addition, investment in mines and oil fields have fallen drastically in the last 5 years.
5-Supply chain challenges
In 2022, problems in the supply chain will continue to affect key industries. Disruptions in shipments, rigidity in supply and the rise in energy prices will be present. This will lead to higher prices in the first half of the year, but then lower prices when demand moderates and logistics normalize.
Increased oil and natural gas production will ease pressures on energy prices. Despite this, production limits will be maintained in companies that use a lot. Analyzed thisExperts warn that supply bottlenecks will continue to hold back growth until mid-2023. Improvements will depend on coronavirus restrictions.
6-Geopolitical tension
Conflicts and geopolitical tensions will not cease, which increases the risk of volatility in the markets. There is also a danger that some confrontation or crisis will disrupt maritime or air transport.
Another consequence will be the greater spending on war material in the main powers, conditioning the prospects for recovery.
Apart from the rivalry between the USA, Russia and China, there is the danger of escalation in the Ukraine, Algeria-Morocco, China-India, in Iran and Taiwan. We will also have to be aware of the opening of the Arctic routes and trade wars.